The unfolding tragedy in Japan has captured the attention of the world. The cascading and connected events of an earthquake, a tsunami, and a nuclear disaster have caused massive destruction and economic turmoil within the country (the third-largest world economy) that has been mired in a decades-long economic malaise. Like so many others, we are hoping and praying for the Japanese people that their situation will improve soon.
As your advisor, we wanted to share with you a few thoughts about the current state of the world and how recent events in Japan, Libya, and elsewhere are affecting the economies around the world.
Today, the United States and other economies throughout the world have their hands full with the evolving situations in Japan, Libya, and the Middle East. On top of that, we still have the simmering sovereign debt issues in Europe (Greece, Portugal and potentially Spain) and the upcoming economic deficit/debt crisis in the U.S. Obviously, the uncertainty and daily developments surrounding these situations are affecting the markets and causing volatility to spike.
We often think about risk and how it affects our clients and their financial decision making. As a result, we have been reading and discussing the book, “The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable” by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. It is a study of how people think about events and risk. In the book, the author describes “Black Swan” events as unforeseen events that are thought to be highly improbable, but have a large—sometimes game-changing impact on our lives. It seems like our world has been hit with an unusually large number of “black swan” events over the past few years.
Here’s a list of events in just the past 15 years that might qualify as “black swans:”
The late 1990s internet bubble and resulting crash
The 2001 terrorist attacks (9/11)
The early 2000s real estate bubble and resulting crash
The 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and resulting tsunami that killed over 200,000 people
The 2007-2009 Great Recession, subprime crisis, and related economic problems
The ongoing civil wars and political unrest in the Middle East and North Africa
The ongoing triple tragedy in Japan
With today’s interconnected world and global communication system, we see these events unfold in near real-time via the 24/7 news media outlets and that amplifies their effect on our minds and outlook towards the world. As a result, we have a tendency to focus on protecting ourselves from these immediate events and often exclude other unforeseen black swan events. Whenever these black swan events occur, it’s important to remember that while we can’t predict when they will occur or what the event will be, we do know that they will happen and we try to plan for that in how we advise you and your family.
Thankfully, over time, though, as these situations move from crisis to closure, we would expect the world will continue its march toward economic growth in GDP productivity and that as a result markets will eventually resume their positive historical momentum. Japan’s own history of recovering from World War II gives us an example of their resilience. For example, The Wall Street Journal stated that, “…from 1950 to 1960, in the heyday of the “economic miracle” that followed World War II, Japanese stocks returned an annual average of 27% after inflation.” We’re not predicting that type of return over the next 10 years; rather, it just shows that Japan—and the world–has bounced back from severe devastation in the past.
We believe that as humans and particularly as Americans, we tend to “find a way to make things work out in the end”. Therefore in spite of the pain and suffering that these tragic world events inflict upon our collective community we believe in the “CAN DO” American spirit to resolve crisis’s as we reach out to individuals who are being directly affected by these events right now.
Notes: S&P 500, DJ Global ex US, Gold, DJ-UBS Commodity Index returns exclude reinvested dividends (gold does not pay a dividend) and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; the DJ Equity All REIT TR Index does include reinvested dividends and the three-, five-, and 10-year returns are annualized; and the 10-year Treasury Note is simply the yield at the close of the day on each of the historical time periods.
Sources: Yahoo! Finance, Barron’s, djindexes.com, London Bullion Market Association.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. N/A means not applicable or not available.